Archive for May 2018

Should U.S. Farmers Fret Over Falling Ag Currencies?

On a day-to-day basis, the prices of major cash crops such as corn, soy and wheat show almost no correlation to day-to-day movements in the values of currencies of agriculture-producing countries versus the U.S. dollar. For example, since 2011, day-to-day changes in the Brazilian real correlated at 0.12 with movements in corn prices. The Russian…

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Our Model Forecasts May Non-Farm Payroll, and June’s Too

Figure 1: Credit Spreads, Yield Curve, Oil Prices and Previous Forecast Error Explain 70% of NFP Changes. Credit Spreads Of the various factors, credit spreads are by far the most important, explaining almost 60% of the month-to-month changes in the NFP. Moreover, credit spreads influence the employment market with a short lag of about one…

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Euro-Dollar Caught in a Fiscal-Monetary Tug-of-War

Figure 1: EURUSD Implied Volatility is Nearer Historic Lows Than Historic Highs. Macroeconomic Indicators Despite unemployment falling from 10% to 3.9% over the course of the past eight and a half years, U.S. inflation isn’t exactly rip roaring. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is at 2.1%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the…

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The Federal Reserve, Inflation and the Flattening Yield Curve

About the Presenter Bluford “Blu” Putnam has served as Managing Director and Chief Economist of CME Group since May 2011. With more than 35 years of experience in the financial services industry and concentrations in central banking, investment research, and portfolio management, Blu serves as CME Group’s spokesperson on global economic conditions. View more reports…

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Oil: Futures to Remain in Backwardation Amid Mideast Tension

About the Presenter Bluford “Blu” Putnam has served as Managing Director and Chief Economist of CME Group since May 2011. With more than 35 years of experience in the financial services industry and concentrations in central banking, investment research, and portfolio management, Blu serves as CME Group’s spokesperson on global economic conditions. View more reports…

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U.S. Pullout of Iran Nuclear Deal: What Next for Oil, Business?

Q1 What does the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal mean for the supply of oil to world markets in the short run? Probably not much initially.  Some analysts suggest that Iranian oil production will be curtailed by new U.S. sanctions to the tune of 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.  This is…

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