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LATAM Economic Prospects

All four of the free-floating LATAM currencies (of Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Colombia) fell sharply versus the U.S. dollar in the early stages of the pandemic.  Since then, the Mexican peso (MXN), Chilean peso (CLP) and Colombian peso (COP) have rebounded.  The Brazilian real (BRL) remains weak (Figure 2). Among these four nations, Mexico is…

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Grain, Oilseed Risk Factors

It’s a similar but less dramatic story for corn.  Corn prices also tracked BRL, and the Russian ruble (RUB), closely for years. Those relationships, too, diverged significantly last year (Figures 2 and 3). There appear to be three factors at play: weather, China, and energy prices. With respect to weather, a powerful La Nina has…

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Fertilizer Monthly Update – January 2021

Helping the World Advance: CME Group comprises of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Further information on each exchange’s rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. Exchange traded and Over-The-Counter (OTC) derivatives are not suitable for all investors, and involve the risk of loss. Exchange…

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Grains and Currencies Diverge

About the Presenter Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. He is responsible for generating economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and the company’s business strategy, and upon those who trade in its various markets. He is…

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Copper in a post-COVID-19 world. Have we seen this before?

Continued optimism regarding the production and potential distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine has given renewed life to global markets which had given up nearly 30% of value at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. United States equity markets have since established new all-time highs while the US unemployment rate has declined to 6.7% in December…

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Market Cross-Currents in 2021

About the Presenter Bluford “Blu” Putnam has served as Managing Director and Chief Economist of CME Group since May 2011. With more than 35 years of experience in the financial services industry and concentrations in central banking, investment research, and portfolio management, Blu serves as CME Group’s spokesperson on global economic conditions. View more reports…

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Q1 2021 Ag Update

Soybean futures prices have reached their highest level in four years due to a lower than expected US crop, South American dryness, and heightened global demand. La Niña has contributed to the driest South American planting season in 40 years and demand from China continues to grow. These factors helped drive benchmark North American Soybean…

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Trends in Small-Cap Stocks

That the performance of small-cap versus large-cap stocks would track inflation expectations is not a new phenomenon. Since 2010, small-cap stocks have outperformed large caps during periods of rising inflation expectations and vice versa. 2020 was no exception. Looking further back — the Russell 2000’s data history begins in 1979 – the performance of small…

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Palm Oil Monthly Update ‒ January 2021

USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil futures* settled at $877.25 per metric ton at the end of December 2020, creating a $81.50 price movement from the beginning of the month. During the month, 20-day rolling volatility ranged from 21.7% to 26.7%, with an average of 24.2%. Bean Oil – Palm Oil (BOPO)** price increased from $28.78…

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